Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
53%
Dem
47%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.6·80% of simulations: R +11.7 to D +12.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +0.6
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
| Change Research | Oct 27, 2025 | D +13 | 638 | lv |
| Change Research | Oct 27, 2025 | D +3 | 638 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 53%
GOP 47%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Sarah Trone Garriott (D) Zach Nunn (R) (inc.)