Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
78%
Dem
22%GOP
▲ D+3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+3.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.2
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+5.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 78%
GOP 22%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott
Republican Zach Nunn (inc.)