Iowa's 3rd Congressional District

66%

Dem

34%GOP

Lean D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +3.0·80% of simulations: R +6.8 to D +12.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +3.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +4.2

National Environment

current political climate

D +10.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D +3.0

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Ragnar Research Partners	Mar 14, 2026	R +6	400	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 66%

GOP 34%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Tossup

District lean

R+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott

Republican Zach Nunn (inc.)