Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
53%
GOP
47%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.9·80% of simulations: R +14.7 to D +12.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +0.9
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +6 | 400 | lv |
| Change Research | Oct 27, 2025 | D +13 | 638 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 47%
R 53%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Sarah Trone Garriott (D) Zach Nunn (R) (inc.)