Iowa's 1st Congressional District

76%

Dem

24%GOP

Lean D

▲ D+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+4.980% of simulations: R+4.4 to D+14.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+6.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

Even

National Environment

current political climate

D+11.2

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.2

Forecasted margin

D+4.9

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council	Jul 16, 2026	D+5	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 76%

GOP 24%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tilt D Sabato Lean D

PVI

R+7 This district leans Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Christina Bohannan

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (inc.)

Independent Michael Bridgford not in the forecast