Iowa's 1st Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.3·80% of simulations: R +16.1 to D +13.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +1.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 19, 2025 | D +4 | 555 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 45%
R 55%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Christina Bohannan (D) Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (inc.)