Iowa's 1st Congressional District
63%
Dem
37%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.7·80% of simulations: R +7.9 to D +13.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +2.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16, 2026 | D +5 | 705 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 63%
GOP 37%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christina Bohannan
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (inc.)