Iowa Governor
90%
Dem
10%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +8.3·80% of simulations: R +0.2 to D +16.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +13.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +9.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +5.8
Forecasted margin
D +8.3
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 6, 2026 | D +4 | 650 | lv |
| SSRS | Oct 5, 2026 | D +9 | 801 | lv |
| Suffolk University | Oct 4, 2026 | D +12 | 500 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1, 2026 | D +11 | 606 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 28, 2026 | D +9 | 1,008 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 90%
GOP 10%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rob Sand
Republican Zach Lahn
- Seat context
- Open seat: Kim Reynolds is not running again.