Texas Senate
75%
GOP
25%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +4.7·80% of simulations: R +15.6 to D +6.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.7
Forecasted margin
R +4.7
Polls
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2 Insights | Jun 28, 2026 | D +2 | 618 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27, 2026 | Even | 656 | lv |
| SoCal Strategies | Jun 21, 2026 | R +1 | 800 | lv |
| YouGov | Jun 12, 2026 | R +1 | 1,200 | rv |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 4, 2026 | R +2 | 800 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 25%
GOP 75%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- James Talarico (D) Ken Paxton (R)