Texas Senate
54%
Dem
46%GOP
▲ R +3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.7·80% of simulations: R +7.3 to D +8.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +3.9
Forecasted margin
D +0.7
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overton Insights | Aug 26, 2026 | Even | 1,167 | lv |
| Slingshot Strategies | Aug 24, 2026 | D +6 | 1,000 | lv |
| YouGov | Aug 13, 2026 | D +3 | 1,200 | rv |
| Emerson College | Aug 10, 2026 | R +1 | 1,000 | lv |
| YouGov Blue | Jul 31, 2026 | D +3 | 1,001 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 54%
GOP 46%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Talarico
Republican Ken Paxton