Texas Senate
66%
Dem
34%GOP
▲ R+2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+3.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+5.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+4.1
Forecasted margin
D+2.2
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (52)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 21, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Verasight VoteHub | Oct 20, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Emerson College Nexstar | Oct 19, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Beacon Research/ | Oct 19, 2026 | Even | LV |
| Slingshot Strategies Texas Public Opinion Research | Oct 18, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Talarico
Republican Ken Paxton