Texas's 10th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+19.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.0
Forecasted margin
R+16.2
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research Caitlin RourkDemocratic | Sep 22, 2026 | R+7 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+21 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Caitlin Rourk
Republican Chris Gober
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.