Texas's 9th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+15.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+1.8
Forecasted margin
R+10.3
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | Oct 7, 2026 | R+6 | LV |
| Public Policy Polling Leticia GutierrezDemocratic | Sep 19, 2026 | R+6 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+17 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Leticia Gutierrez
Republican Alexandra Mealer