Texas's 38th Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+18.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.0
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.3
Forecasted margin
R+17.5
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+21 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Melissa McDonough
Republican Jon Bonck
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.