Texas's 38th Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.6·80% of simulations: R +31.2 to R +3.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +17.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+21 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Melissa McDonough
Republican Jon Bonck
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.