Texas Governor
75%
GOP
25%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +4.2·80% of simulations: R +12.6 to D +4.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +9.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +5.1
Forecasted margin
R +4.2
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (36)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5, 2026 | D +1 | 3,622 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 30, 2026 | D +4 | 615 | lv |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | Sep 28, 2026 | R +4 | 850 | lv |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Sep 28, 2026 | R +2 | 800 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 28, 2026 | R +5 | 881 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 25%
GOP 75%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+12 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Gina Hinojosa
Republican Greg Abbott (inc.)