Texas's 28th Congressional District
82%
Dem
18%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +8.2·80% of simulations: R +3.4 to D +19.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +5.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.0
Forecasted margin
D +8.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22, 2026 | D +11 | 600 | lv |
| Pulse Decision Science | Jun 23, 2026 | R +9 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 82%
GOP 18%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Henry Cuellar (inc.)
Republican Tano Tijerina