Texas's 28th Congressional District
92%
Dem
8%GOP
▲ D+3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+5.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+2.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.5
Forecasted margin
D+11.4
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic | Oct 13, 2026 | D+20 | LV |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22, 2026 | D+11 | LV |
| Pulse Decision Science Tano TijerinaRepublican | Jun 23, 2026 | R+9 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 92%
GOP 8%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+5 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Henry Cuellar (inc.)
Republican Tano Tijerina