Texas's 34th Congressional District
66%
Dem
34%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.0·80% of simulations: R +6.8 to D +12.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +3.0
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22, 2026 | D +3 | 700 | lv |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Jun 16, 2026 | R +3 | 400 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | R +1 | 777 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (inc.)
Republican Eric Flores