Texas's 34th Congressional District
51%
GOP
49%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.1·80% of simulations: R +12.0 to D +11.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +0.1
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Jun 16, 2026 | R +3 | 400 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | R +1 | 777 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 49%
GOP 51%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Vicente Gonzalez (D) (inc.) Eric Flores (R)