Texas's 34th Congressional District
80%
Dem
20%GOP
▲ D+7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+5.4
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/ | Oct 19, 2026 | D+7 | LV |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Ragnar Research Partners Eric FloresRepublican | Jun 16, 2026 | R+3 | LV |
| co/ | Apr 29, 2026 | R+1 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 80%
GOP 20%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (inc.)
Republican Eric Flores