Texas's 15th Congressional District
85%
GOP
15%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.0·80% of simulations: R +19.9 to D +3.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +8.0
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applecart | May 25, 2026 | R +3 | 802 | lv |
| Applecart | May 25, 2026 | D +2 | 802 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 11, 2025 | R +3 | 533 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 15%
GOP 85%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+14).
- Candidates
- Bobby Pulido (D) Monica De La Cruz (R) (inc.)