Texas's 15th Congressional District

61%

GOP

39%Dem

Lean R

▲ R +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +1.8·80% of simulations: R +10.5 to D +6.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +13.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +1.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +7.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +2.9

Forecasted margin

R +1.8

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Aug 22, 2026	D +5	700	lv
Applecart	May 25, 2026	D +2	802	lv
Applecart	May 25, 2026	R +3	802	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 39%

GOP 61%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Tilt R Sabato Tossup

District lean

R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Bobby Pulido

Republican Monica De La Cruz (inc.)