Texas's 15th Congressional District
51%
GOP
49%Dem
▲ R+2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+13.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+2.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.3
Forecasted margin
R+0.1
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 28, 2026 | D+7 | LV |
| Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 28, 2026 | D+13 | LV |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
| Applecart WelcomePACDemocratic | May 25, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Applecart WelcomePACDemocratic | May 25, 2026 | R+3 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 49%
GOP 51%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Bobby Pulido
Republican Monica De La Cruz (inc.)