Texas's 4th Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +20.7·80% of simulations: R +33.2 to R +8.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +21.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +20.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+23 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jason Pearce
Republican Pat Fallon (inc.)