Texas's 23rd Congressional District
81%
GOP
19%Dem
▲ D+8% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+12.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.9
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
R+6.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 19%
GOP 81%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Katy Padilla Stout
Republican Brandon Herrera