Texas's 23rd Congressional District
86%
GOP
14%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +9.7·80% of simulations: R +21.2 to D +1.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +9.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 11, 2026 | R +2 | 521 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 11, 2026 | R +2 | 521 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 14%
GOP 86%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Katy Padilla Stout
Republican Brandon Herrera