Texas's 35th Congressional District
59%
GOP
41%Dem
▲ D +4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.1·80% of simulations: R +22.0 to D +15.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +3.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 41%
GOP 59%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Johnny Garcia
Republican Carlos De La Cruz
- Seat context
- Open seat after redistricting. Forecast uses the current 2026 lines.