Texas's 35th Congressional District
52%
Dem
48%GOP
▲ D+12% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+0.3
What Changes the Forecast
This could go either way. A small polling shift might flip the whole thing.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/ | Oct 19, 2026 | R+1 | LV |
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PACDemocratic | Aug 31, 2026 | R+1 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 52%
GOP 48%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Johnny Garcia
Republican Carlos De La Cruz
- Seat context
- Open seat after redistricting. Forecast uses the current 2026 lines.