Texas's 2nd Congressional District

97%

GOP

3%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+14.880% of simulations: R+24.4 to R+5.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+21.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+1.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.0

Forecasted margin

R+14.8

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Impact Research Shaun FinnieDemocratic	Oct 4, 2026	R+9	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 3%

GOP 97%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+23 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Shaun Finnie

Republican Steve Toth