Maine Senate

63%

Dem

37%GOP

Lean D

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +2.9·80% of simulations: R +8.9 to D +14.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +6.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +8.5

National Environment

current political climate

D +3.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +1.4

Forecasted margin

D +2.9

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Public Policy Polling	Jun 3, 2026	D +4	670	rv
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	Jun 3, 2026	Even	800	lv
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov	May 26, 2026	D +5	650	lv
University of New Hampshire	May 25, 2026	D +9	1,250	lv
Pan Atlantic SMS Group	May 18, 2026	D +7	827	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 63%

R 37%

Race Details