Maine Senate

64%

Dem

36%GOP

Lean D

▲ R+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+2.080% of simulations: R+5.2 to D+9.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+6.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+10.4

National Environment

current political climate

D+5.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.3

Forecasted margin

D+2.0

What Changes the Forecast

Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Fox News	Oct 20, 2026	Even	LV
InsiderAdvantage	Oct 14, 2026	D+3	LV
Suffolk University	Oct 11, 2026	D+2	LV
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	Oct 5, 2026	D+4	LV
Marist University	Oct 4, 2026	D+4	RV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 64%

GOP 36%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Tossup

PVI

D+8 This state leans Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Troy Jackson

Republican Susan Collins (inc.)