Maine Senate
66%
Dem
34%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.6·80% of simulations: R +5.9 to D +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
D +2.6
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 | D +8 | 327 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 10, 2026 | D +2 | 1,000 | rv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 1, 2026 | D +4 | 802 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20, 2026 | D +3 | 1,178 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | D +5 | 785 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- D+8 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Troy Jackson
Republican Susan Collins (inc.)