Maine Senate
66%
Dem
34%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.9·80% of simulations: R +8.2 to D +14.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +6.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.0
Forecasted margin
D +2.9
Polls
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | D +5 | 785 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | Even | 785 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | Even | 785 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | R +11 | 785 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 7, 2026 | R +9 | 785 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans Democratic (D+8).
- Candidates
- Susan Collins (R) (inc.) Democratic challenger pending