Maine's 1st Congressional District

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+26.380% of simulations: D+19.1 to D+33.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+20.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+0.1

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.5

Forecasted margin

D+26.3

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
University of New Hampshire	Sep 21, 2026	D+22	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

PVI

D+22 This is a safe Democrat district.

Candidates

Democrat Chellie Pingree (inc.)

Republican Ronald Russell