Maine's 1st Congressional District

99%

Dem

1%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +24.6·80% of simulations: D +13.6 to D +35.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +20.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.4

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.1

Forecasted margin

D +24.6

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 99%

GOP 1%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

District lean

D+22 This is a safe Democrat district.

Candidates

Democrat Chellie Pingree (inc.)

Republican Ronald Russell