Maine Governor
99%
Dem
1%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +17.1·80% of simulations: D +8.7 to D +25.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +8.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +4.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +3.1
Forecasted margin
D +17.1
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | Oct 5, 2026 | D +13 | 800 | lv |
| Marist University | Oct 4, 2026 | D +12 | 1,505 | rv |
| YouGov | Oct 1, 2026 | D +12 | 1,133 | lv |
| co/efficient | Sep 30, 2026 | D +9 | 1,240 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22, 2026 | D +14 | 619 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+8 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Hannah Pingree
Republican Bobby Charles
- Seat context
- Open seat: Janet Mills is term-limited.