Maine's 2nd Congressional District
84%
GOP
16%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.5·80% of simulations: R +19.7 to D +2.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +8.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 16, 2026 | D +1 | 600 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 28, 2026 | R +10 | 918 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 16%
GOP 84%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Matthew Dunlap
Republican Paul LePage
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.