Maine's 2nd Congressional District
75%
GOP
25%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +5.8·80% of simulations: R +17.4 to D +5.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.0
Forecasted margin
R +5.8
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | May 18, 2026 | D +8 | 418 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 28, 2026 | R +10 | 918 | lv |
| Upswing Research | Feb 27, 2026 | R +7 | 403 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16, 2026 | R +4 | 520 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16, 2026 | R +1 | 520 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 25%
R 75%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Jordan Wood (D) Paul LePage (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.