Maine's 2nd Congressional District
54%
GOP
46%Dem
▲ D+2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+5.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+1.9
Forecasted margin
R+0.4
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research Matt DunlapDemocratic | Oct 14, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
| Tulchin Research Matt DunlapDemocratic | Sep 30, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D+6 | LV |
| Impact Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 12, 2026 | R+4 | LV |
| Impact Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 12, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 46%
GOP 54%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Matthew Dunlap
Republican Paul LePage
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.