Maine's 2nd Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
▲ D +4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.4·80% of simulations: R +19.9 to D +3.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.2
Forecasted margin
R +8.4
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 16, 2026 | D +1 | 600 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 28, 2026 | R +10 | 918 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 16, 2026 | R +1 | 520 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Matthew Dunlap (D) Paul LePage (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.