New Hampshire Senate
75%
Dem
25%GOP
▲ R +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +4.2·80% of simulations: R +4.0 to D +12.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.9
Forecasted margin
D +4.2
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Aug 30, 2026 | R +1 | 600 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24, 2026 | R +2 | 1,846 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Aug 18, 2026 | D +7 | 1,411 | lv |
| Peak Insights | Jun 27, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25, 2026 | D +6 | 1,614 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 75%
GOP 25%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- D+4 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chris Pappas
Republican John Sununu
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.