New Hampshire Senate
70%
Dem
30%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.3·80% of simulations: R +8.1 to D +18.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +5.3
Polls
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 21, 2026 | D +14 | 1,115 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 21, 2026 | D +7 | 1,130 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 23, 2026 | D +9 | 1,100 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 23, 2026 | D +2 | 1,100 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Mar 18, 2026 | D +3 | 1,491 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 70%
R 30%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democratic (D+4).
- Candidates
- Chris Pappas (D) John Sununu (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.