New Hampshire Senate
81%
Dem
19%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +6.3·80% of simulations: R +4.9 to D +17.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
D +6.3
Polls
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights | Jun 27, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25, 2026 | D +12 | 1,614 | rv |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25, 2026 | D +6 | 1,614 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +14 | 1,980 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +3 | 2,157 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 81%
GOP 19%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democratic (D+4).
- Candidates
- Chris Pappas (D) John Sununu (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.