New Hampshire Senate

90%

Dem

10%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+7.380% of simulations: D+0.2 to D+14.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+3.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+2.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.2

Forecasted margin

D+7.3

What Changes the Forecast

The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
St. Anselm	Oct 20, 2026	D+7	LV
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PACRepublican	Oct 12, 2026	D+5	LV
YouGov	Oct 5, 2026	D+8	LV
St. Anselm AARP	Sep 29, 2026	D+7	LV
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Sep 27, 2026	D+7	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 90%

GOP 10%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tilt D Sabato Likely D

PVI

D+4 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Chris Pappas

Republican John Sununu

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.