New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.1·80% of simulations: D +6.1 to D +26.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
D +16.1
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Anselm | Jun 25, 2026 | D +19 | 802 | rv |
| St. Anselm | Mar 18, 2026 | D +12 | 739 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 19, 2026 | D +14 | 1,094 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Nov 19, 2025 | D +5 | 1,102 | rv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 23, 2025 | D +12 | 508 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Maggie Goodlander (D) (inc.) Lily Tang Williams (R)