New Hampshire Governor
98%
GOP
2%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +14.2·80% of simulations: R +22.6 to R +5.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +3.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +28.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.4
Forecasted margin
R +14.2
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Oct 5, 2026 | R +9 | 1,520 | lv |
| St. Anselm | Sep 29, 2026 | R +7 | 1,042 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 22, 2026 | R +11 | 613 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | R +4 | 1,407 | lv |
| co/efficient | Sep 11, 2026 | R +21 | 958 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+4 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Cinde Warmington
Republican Kelly Ayotte (inc.)