New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District
78%
Dem
22%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +10.2·80% of simulations: R +7.8 to D +28.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +10.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 78%
GOP 22%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Maura Sullivan
Republican Anthony Dilorenzo
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.