New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District

89%

Dem

11%GOP

Likely D

▲ D+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+8.980% of simulations: R+0.5 to D+18.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+2.8

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+3.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+12.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+2.7

Forecasted margin

D+8.9

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
St. Anselm	Oct 20, 2026	D+4	LV
University of New Hampshire	Sep 21, 2026	D+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 89%

GOP 11%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Lean D Sabato Likely D

PVI

D+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Stefany Shaheen

Republican Anthony Dilorenzo

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.