Kentucky Senate

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+19.980% of simulations: R+27.5 to R+12.2

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+26.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+2.1

National Environment

current political climate

D+3.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.5

Forecasted margin

R+19.9

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Global Strategy Group Charles BookerDemocratic	Aug 27, 2026	R+9	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+30 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Charles Booker

Republican Andy Barr

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.