Kentucky's 5th Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +53.4·80% of simulations: R +63.2 to R +43.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +58.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +53.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+64 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ned Pillersdorf
Republican Hal Rogers (inc.)