Kentucky's 6th Congressional District
84%
GOP
16%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.3·80% of simulations: R +19.5 to D +2.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.9
Forecasted margin
R +8.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team | Jul 30, 2026 | Even | 474 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 25, 2026 | Even | 675 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 16%
GOP 84%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Zach Dembo
Republican Ralph Alvarado
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.