Kentucky's 6th Congressional District

54%

Dem

46%GOP

Tossup

▲ D+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+0.680% of simulations: R+6.4 to D+7.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+12.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+1.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+8.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+3.4

Forecasted margin

D+0.6

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic	Oct 5, 2026	D+6	LV
Change Research Kentuckians Not CorruptionDemocratic	Oct 5, 2026	D+9	LV
Lake Research Partners House Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 4, 2026	D+3	LV
GQR Zach DemboDemocratic	Sep 30, 2026	D+5	LV
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic	Jul 30, 2026	Even	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 54%

GOP 46%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tilt R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Zach Dembo

Republican Ralph Alvarado

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for the U.S. Senate.