Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +27.9·80% of simulations: R +37.8 to R +17.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +32.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +27.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+36 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Melissa Strange
Republican Ed Gallrein