New Jersey Senate
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+4.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+5.7
Polls
polling in similar states
Even
Forecasted margin
D+18.3
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No statewide polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+9 This state leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Cory Booker (inc.)
Republican Justin Murphy