New Jersey's 6th Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +22.5·80% of simulations: D +9.4 to D +35.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +8.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +22.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+10 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Frank Pallone (inc.)
Republican Hillary Herzig