New Jersey's 1st Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+18.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.1
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+25.1
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+20 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Donald Norcross (inc.)
Republican Damon Galdo