New Jersey's 8th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+27.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.4
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+30.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+30 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rob Menendez (inc.)
Republican challenger pending
Independent Aristotle Eliopoulos not in the forecast