New Jersey's 12th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +30.2·80% of simulations: D +20.3 to D +40.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +24.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +30.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+27 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Adam Hamawy
Republican Gregg Mele
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.