New Jersey's 11th Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
▲ R+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+9.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.8
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+22.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 97%
GOP 3%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+11 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Analilia Mejia (inc.)
Republican Joe Hathaway
- Seat context
- Vacant seat. Special election pending after the incumbent resigned in November 2025.