New Jersey's 4th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+25.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.4
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.3
Forecasted margin
R+23.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+28 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rachel Peace
Republican Chris Smith (inc.)