New Jersey's 4th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +24.8·80% of simulations: R +35.8 to R +13.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +25.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +24.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+28 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rachel Peace
Republican Christopher Smith (inc.)