New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
83%
Dem
17%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+0.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+6.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.2
Forecasted margin
D+6.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| StimSight Research InsiderNJ | Sep 12, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
| Z to A Research 314 ActionDemocratic | May 26, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 83%
GOP 17%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rebecca Bennett
Republican Thomas Kean (inc.)