New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
58%
Dem
42%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.9·80% of simulations: R +11.4 to D +15.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +0.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +1.9
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | May 26, 2026 | D +4 | 430 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 58%
R 42%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split district (D+0).
- Candidates
- Rebecca Bennett (D) Thomas Kean (R) (inc.)