New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
70%
Dem
30%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +4.7·80% of simulations: R +7.7 to D +17.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +0.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +4.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | May 26, 2026 | D +4 | 430 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 70%
GOP 30%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rebecca Bennett
Republican Thomas Kean (inc.)