New Jersey's 9th Congressional District
87%
Dem
13%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +14.1·80% of simulations: R +2.2 to D +30.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +14.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 87%
GOP 13%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+4 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Nellie Pou (inc.)
Republican Rosemary Pino