Montana Senate

99%

GOP

1%Ind

Solid R

Other candidates

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+16.080% of simulations: R+22.8 to R+8.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+17.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+3.4

National Environment

current political climate

I+3.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

I+1.4

Forecasted margin

R+15.9

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Quantus Insights	Oct 18, 2026	R+16	LV
Peak Insights Kurt AlmeRepublican	Oct 12, 2026	R+15	LV
Concord Public Opinion Partners Education Reform Now AdvocacyDemocratic	Oct 8, 2026	I+2	LV
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local	Sep 24, 2026	R+19	LV
Aspect Strategic Montana Freedom PAC	Sep 15, 2026	R+12	LV

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Ind 1%

GOP 99%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+20 This state leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Independent Seth Bodnar

Republican Kurt Alme

Democrat Alani Bankhead