Montana Senate
98%
GOP
2%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.9·80% of simulations: R +26.7 to R +5.0
Seth Bodnar is running in this race as an independent. Solid Purple's model forecasts two-way contests, so the numbers above reflect only the Democratic and Republican candidates and do not account for a third candidate. We know this is a limitation of the model. If Bodnar emerges as the leading challenger, or this becomes a competitive three-way, we will update the forecast.
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +17.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +15.9
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | Jun 24, 2026 | R +16 | 500 | lv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 24, 2026 | R +6 | 800 | lv |
| Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 11, 2026 | R +19 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+20).
- Candidates
- Alani Bankhead (D) Kurt Alme (R)