Montana Senate
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.1·80% of simulations: R +26.3 to R +9.9
Seth Bodnar is running in this race as an independent. Solid Purple's model forecasts two-way contests, so the numbers above reflect only the Democratic and Republican candidates and do not account for a third candidate. We know this is a limitation of the model. If Bodnar emerges as the leading challenger, or this becomes a competitive three-way, we will update the forecast.
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +17.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +18.1
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 4, 2026 | R +14 | 800 | lv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 4, 2026 | R +30 | 800 | lv |
| GQR | Jul 26, 2026 | R +8 | 500 | lv |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16, 2026 | R +14 | 793 | lv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 24, 2026 | R +6 | 800 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+20 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Alani Bankhead
Republican Kurt Alme