Montana's 1st Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.0·80% of simulations: R +19.1 to D +3.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.1
Forecasted margin
R +8.0
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Jun 25, 2026 | Even | 500 | lv |
| Upswing Research | May 5, 2026 | R +5 | 401 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+10).
- Candidates
- Sam Forstag (D) Aaron Flint (R)