Montana's 1st Congressional District

51%

GOP

49%Dem

Tossup

▲ D+9% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+0.180% of simulations: R+7.1 to D+6.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+9.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+1.2

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.9

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.8

Forecasted margin

R+0.1

What Changes the Forecast

This could go either way. A small polling shift might flip the whole thing.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Emerson College Poll Vault	Oct 14, 2026	D+4	LV
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local	Sep 24, 2026	Even	LV
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local	Sep 24, 2026	R+9	LV
Impact Research Sam ForstagDemocratic	Sep 23, 2026	D+3	LV
Public Policy Polling The BenchDemocratic	Sep 10, 2026	D+2	RV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 49%

GOP 51%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tilt R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+10 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Sam Forstag

Republican Aaron Flint