Montana's 1st Congressional District
79%
GOP
21%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +6.6·80% of simulations: R +17.8 to D +4.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +6.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Jun 25, 2026 | Even | 500 | lv |
| Upswing Research | May 5, 2026 | R +5 | 401 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 21%
GOP 79%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+10 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sam Forstag
Republican Aaron Flint