Montana's 2nd Congressional District

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+24.980% of simulations: R+32.4 to R+17.4

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+27.4

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+3.4

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.4

Forecasted margin

R+24.9

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Sep 7, 2026	R+22	RV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+30 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Brian Miller

Republican Troy Downing (inc.)