Montana's 2nd Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +25.3·80% of simulations: R +36.1 to R +14.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +27.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +25.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+30 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Brian Miller
Republican Troy Downing (inc.)