Ohio Senate
56%
GOP
44%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.1·80% of simulations: R +12.4 to D +10.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +1.1
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 28, 2026 | R +3 | 601 | lv |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Jun 16, 2026 | D +3 | 800 | lv |
| Tulchin Research | Jun 4, 2026 | D +4 | 600 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 1, 2026 | D +8 | 1,015 | rv |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Apr 14, 2026 | R +3 | 1,000 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 44%
GOP 56%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Sherrod Brown (D) Jon Husted (R)
- Seat Context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.