Ohio Senate
59%
Dem
41%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.4·80% of simulations: R +7.0 to D +9.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.7
Forecasted margin
D +1.4
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 | D +5 | 306 | lv |
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 13, 2026 | D +4 | 800 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Aug 10, 2026 | D +8 | 1,008 | rv |
| Tulchin Research | Aug 4, 2026 | D +4 | 600 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 28, 2026 | R +3 | 601 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 59%
GOP 41%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sherrod Brown
Republican Jon Husted
- Seat context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.