Ohio Senate
55%
GOP
45%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.3·80% of simulations: R +14.1 to D +11.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.1
Forecasted margin
R +1.3
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Jun 1, 2026 | D +8 | 1,015 | rv |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov | Apr 14, 2026 | R +3 | 1,000 | rv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | R +6 | 413 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | Mar 14, 2026 | R +1 | 784 | lv |
| OnMessage Inc. | Mar 8, 2026 | D +2 | 600 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 45%
R 55%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Sherrod Brown (D) Jon Husted (R)
- Seat Context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.