Ohio Senate
74%
Dem
26%GOP
▲ D+4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+9.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+3.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+4.4
Forecasted margin
D+3.5
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 22, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Verasight VoteHub | Oct 20, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
| Beacon Research/ | Oct 19, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
| Marist University | Oct 18, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
| ActiVote | Oct 18, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 74%
GOP 26%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sherrod Brown
Republican Jon Husted
- Seat context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.