Ohio's 15th Congressional District

82%

GOP

18%Dem

Likely R

▲ D+4% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+6.480% of simulations: R+15.6 to D+2.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+8.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+8.9

National Environment

current political climate

D+10.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.9

Forecasted margin

R+6.4

What Changes the Forecast

The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies House Majority PACDemocratic	Sep 24, 2026	D+1	LV
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies House Majority PACDemocratic	Sep 24, 2026	D+1	LV
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies Don LeonardDemocratic	Aug 9, 2026	R+4	LV
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies House Majority PACDemocratic	Jun 25, 2026	R+5	LV
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies House Majority PACDemocratic	Jun 25, 2026	D+3	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 18%

GOP 82%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R

PVI

R+10 This district leans Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Don Leonard

Republican Mike Carey (inc.)