Ohio's 15th Congressional District
93%
GOP
7%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.4·80% of simulations: R +21.3 to R +1.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +12.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +11.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 9, 2026 | R +4 | 401 | lv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 25, 2026 | R +5 | 550 | lv |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 25, 2026 | D +3 | 550 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 7%
GOP 93%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+10 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Don Leonard
Republican Mike Carey (inc.)