Ohio Governor
69%
Dem
31%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.1·80% of simulations: R +5.4 to D +11.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +11.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +4.0
Forecasted margin
D +3.1
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Oct 6, 2026 | R +2 | 925 | lv |
| SSRS | Oct 5, 2026 | D +8 | 760 | lv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1, 2026 | D +4 | 616 | lv |
| YouGov | Sep 30, 2026 | D +4 | 3,777 | lv |
| Marist University | Sep 27, 2026 | D +6 | 1,298 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 69%
GOP 31%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Amy Acton
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy
- Seat context
- Open seat: Mike DeWine is term-limited.