Ohio's 7th Congressional District
54%
GOP
46%Dem
▲ R +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.6·80% of simulations: R +9.0 to D +7.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.9
Forecasted margin
R +0.6
What Changes the Forecast
The polls are at odds with the fundamentals. We need a little more of everything.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedrock Polling | Aug 10, 2026 | D +8 | 866 | lv |
| Tavern Research | Aug 4, 2026 | D +8 | 635 | lv |
| GBAO | Jun 20, 2026 | R +1 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 46%
GOP 54%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Brian Poindexter
Republican Max Miller (inc.)