Ohio's 9th Congressional District
61%
Dem
39%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.4·80% of simulations: R +9.7 to D +14.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +2.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 20, 2026 | R +4 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 61%
GOP 39%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+10 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marcy Kaptur (inc.)
Republican Derek Merrin