Ohio's 9th Congressional District
66%
Dem
34%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+9.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.4
Forecasted margin
D+2.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic | Sep 23, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+10 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marcy Kaptur (inc.)
Republican Derek Merrin