Ohio's 9th Congressional District

51%

Dem

49%GOP

Tossup

▲ D +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +0.1·80% of simulations: R +12.4 to D +12.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +9.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +4.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D +0.1

Polls

Polls (1)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 20, 2026	R +4	400	lv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 51%

GOP 49%

Race Details