Ohio's 10th Congressional District
86%
GOP
14%Dem
▲ D+7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+13.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.4
Forecasted margin
R+6.7
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic | Oct 13, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Global Strategy Group Kristina KnickerbockerDemocratic | Jul 23, 2026 | R+7 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 14%
GOP 86%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker
Republican Mike Turner (inc.)