Ohio's 10th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.1·80% of simulations: R +23.6 to R +0.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +14.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +12.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 23, 2026 | R +7 | 700 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker
Republican Michael Turner (inc.)