Ohio's 1st Congressional District
77%
Dem
23%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +7.0·80% of simulations: R +5.4 to D +19.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +1.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.8
Forecasted margin
D +7.0
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Aug 24, 2026 | D +3 | 509 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 77%
GOP 23%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+2 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Greg Landsman (inc.)
Republican Eric Conroy