Ohio's 1st Congressional District
90%
Dem
10%GOP
▲ D+4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+1.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+1.8
Forecasted margin
D+9.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies Eric ConroyRepublican | Oct 2, 2026 | Even | LV |
| Torchlight Strategies Eric ConroyRepublican | Oct 2, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 24, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 90%
GOP 10%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+2 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Greg Landsman (inc.)
Republican Eric Conroy