Georgia Senate
65%
Dem
35%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +4.0·80% of simulations: R +9.5 to D +17.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +1.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +4.0
Polls
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | D +9 | 407 | lv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | D +7 | 407 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 2, 2026 | D +3 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 2, 2026 | D +8 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 2, 2026 | D +4 | 1,000 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 65%
R 35%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+2).
- Candidates
- Jon Ossoff (D) (inc.) Buddy Carter (R)