Georgia Senate
83%
Dem
17%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +6.4·80% of simulations: R +2.3 to D +15.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +1.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.0
Forecasted margin
D +6.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | Aug 17, 2026 | D +8 | 800 | lv |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Jul 16, 2026 | D +9 | 1,060 | lv |
| Wick | Jun 30, 2026 | D +4 | 1,175 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 27, 2026 | D +13 | 1,002 | rv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | D +7 | 407 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 83%
GOP 17%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+2 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jon Ossoff (inc.)
Republican Mike Collins