Georgia Senate
82%
Dem
18%GOP
▲ D +3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +6.4·80% of simulations: R +4.4 to D +17.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +1.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.1
Forecasted margin
D +6.4
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Jul 16, 2026 | D +9 | 1,060 | lv |
| Wick | Jun 30, 2026 | D +4 | 1,175 | lv |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 27, 2026 | D +13 | 1,002 | rv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | D +7 | 407 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 2, 2026 | D +4 | 1,000 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 82%
GOP 18%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a highly competitive, evenly split state (R+2).
- Candidates
- Jon Ossoff (D) (inc.) Mike Collins (R)