Georgia's 11th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+21.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.3
Forecasted margin
R+16.3
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Consulting Services Chris HardenDemocratic | Sep 11, 2026 | R+3 | LV |
| Miller Consulting Services Chris HardenDemocratic | Sep 11, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+23 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chris Harden
Republican John Cowan
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.