Georgia Governor
53%
GOP
47%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.4·80% of simulations: R +8.8 to D +8.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +1.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.9
Forecasted margin
R +0.4
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 3, 2026 | R +2 | 600 | lv |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 23, 2026 | R +1 | 678 | lv |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 23, 2026 | R +2 | 1,200 | lv |
| YouGov | Sep 18, 2026 | R +3 | 3,069 | lv |
| Rasmussen Reports | Sep 14, 2026 | R +3 | 1,019 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 47%
GOP 53%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+2 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms
Republican Rick Jackson
- Notes
- Majority required.
- Seat context
- Open seat: Brian Kemp is term-limited.