Mississippi Senate
96%
GOP
4%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.1·80% of simulations: R +30.8 to R +5.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +19.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +18.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Apr 12, 2026 | R +3 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 4%
R 96%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+22).
- Candidates
- Scott Colom (D) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) (inc.)