Mississippi Senate

98%

GOP

2%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +15.6·80% of simulations: R +24.5 to R +6.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +19.4

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +3.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +1.7

Forecasted margin

R +15.6

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Data for Progress	Aug 15, 2026	R +6	1,018	lv
Data for Progress	Aug 15, 2026	R +6	1,018	lv
Impact Research	Apr 12, 2026	R +3	500	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 2%

GOP 98%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

State lean

R+22 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Scott Colom

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith (inc.)