Mississippi Senate

97%

GOP

3%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+11.680% of simulations: R+19.4 to R+3.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+19.4

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+1.4

National Environment

current political climate

D+3.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+2.7

Forecasted margin

R+11.6

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Change Research Government that Works PACDemocratic	Oct 22, 2026	R+3	LV
Data for Progress Way to Lead PACDemocratic	Aug 15, 2026	R+6	LV
Data for Progress Way to Lead PACDemocratic	Aug 15, 2026	R+6	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 3%

GOP 97%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Likely R

PVI

R+22 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Scott Colom

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith (inc.)